2026-09-28 · Column
The Fed's Data Gauntlet: PCE Wednesday, Jobs Friday
Not financial advice. Verify claims independently.
Two prints will decide the November rate path — here's what each number has to show.
Two macro prints dominate the Fed's November decision:
Wednesday — core PCE: the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A 0.2% monthly print keeps the cut path alive; 0.3%+ revives the "higher for longer" talk.
Friday — jobs report: payrolls, unemployment, wages. The sweet spot: job growth cooling but not collapsing — enough softness to justify easing, not so much it screams recession.
The interplay matters more than either print alone: soft jobs + hot PCE = stagflation scare (the worst tape). Goldilocks = soft-but-positive jobs + tame PCE.
Earnings traders: Micron's Wednesday-night reaction has to survive two more macro mornings before the week is out. Position accordingly — and rehearse the scenarios on Stock Picks.
Closing notice
Put it into practice
Rehearse this idea risk-free on Stock Picks — paper-trade the follow-through before you size the real position.
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